V is for volatility.
The $vix.x hit 40+ and the market reversed from just over +100 points for the week. We have been expecting a violent reversal, and only liars or the extremely talented know exactly where and when it will come.
The V bounce gave a few clues but guessing against the trend is just that: [...]
Archive for the ‘The System’ Category
V day
Posted in The System, tagged $vix.x, illuminati, reversal day on September 19, 2008 | Leave a Comment »
Is the bear market over?
Posted in The System, tagged bear market rallies, market plunge on September 16, 2008 | Leave a Comment »
Ferocious rallies are the hallmark of bear markets.
No one knows until hindsight. I have noticed, however, that secondary indicators like the Svix.x, tick, trin, etc are helpful, but only a fool will call for a bottom without seeing sideways action and/or major capitulation first.
Let the talking heads on CNBC make their claims; for me the [...]
Ugly is beautiful
Posted in The System, tagged Long trap, one way elevator, read the charts, trend day on September 9, 2008 | Leave a Comment »
If you know the secret code, taking money out of the market is a lot easier.
Today’s ugly chart pattern is a thing of beauty to the market participants who know how to read it.
If you are not one of us, what is holding you back?
Day after day, week in and week out, opportunities abound.
Knowing where [...]
Chutes and Ladders
Posted in The System, tagged breakdown day, market plunge, trend days on September 4, 2008 | Leave a Comment »
Do you remember the game of chutes and ladders?
It was a favorite of mine when I was a kid.
Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words.
Learn to see the big picture.
Bear markets jump out the window, so you either take the leap of faith or miss the move.
Risk and Reward
Posted in The System, tagged range days, risk and reward, sequence trading, stop losses, trend days on September 3, 2008 | Leave a Comment »
Sloppy and choppy trading for the vast majority of traders unaccustomed to sequence trading.
Plenty of setups today in both directions if you know what you are looking for.
Grabbing the majority of the move and leaving the last tic or two for the greedy usually works best for me.
That’s the essence of risk and reward; where do [...]
Riding the Waves of Summer
Posted in The System, tagged elliot wave, go with the flow on September 1, 2008 | Leave a Comment »
I believe that everything in life serves me.
Summer vacation at the beach last week is no exception. A few observations:
Watching the waves, almost imperceptibly, the tide turns.
Swmming with the current that ran parallel to the shore was effortless.
Swimming against the current that ran parallel to the shore was impossible, even for Michael Phelps.
When riding the current, “getting out [...]
Micro-wave
Posted in The System, tagged a-b-c, counter-trade, elliot wave, gap and go on August 23, 2008 | Leave a Comment »
Robert Prechter’s Elliot Wave International is perhaps the most famous of contemporary wave theoricsts.
The main thrust is 3 impulse, 2 corrective waves.
The corrective phase against the main trend is the a-b-c wave; the one I call the microwave. It helps me keep clear what is the main direction we are going next. As a day trader, that [...]
Grinder day
Posted in The System, tagged positive expectancy, risk reward, secret code on August 22, 2008 | Leave a Comment »
The market opened near today’s low, chopped around, then made a steady climb to fill the 73+ gap. After a soft pullback on profit taking, the market continued to grind higher until the last half hour when traders took their profits.
The secret code traders were well rewarded today by staying true to their belief in the magic [...]
See saw day
Posted in The System, tagged pivots, range trade on August 21, 2008 | Leave a Comment »
Today was a see saw day. Up and down in a range, with a few head fakes thrown in for good measure.
Find the basic range, and trade 80% of the middle is a reasonable strategy for conservative traders. This plan is for range trading. In the chart below you will see the ends as “tails” above [...]
Deja vu
Posted in The System, tagged gap, range, resistance, secret code, support on August 20, 2008 | Leave a Comment »
These wonderful lines are from the movie deja vu.
Doug Carlin: What if you had to tell someone the most important thing in the world, but you knew they’d never believe you?
Claire Kuchever: I’d try.
[last lines]
Claire Kuchever: What if you had to tell someone the most important thing in the world, but you knew they’d never [...]
